A Solo Dialogue
PATTY PATTY BUKE BUKE -
I don't agree with
Pat Buchanan's commentary on the Ten Commandments, or on his interpretation of the Founding Father's intent regarding church and state, but I am certainly impressed with the way he writes.
While you're at it go read
Martin Luther King Jr.'s "I have a Dream" speech too.
TONY & PEDRO -
Sports writing simply does not get any better than
Tony Kornheiser (whose columns I now provide a link to on the right) writing about Pedro Martinez.
And since we are on the topic of baseball, last night was a baseball trifecta for me -- I had seats in the second row behind the White Sox dugout, the Yankees lost & the Red Sox won. I was so close to the field that the umpire actually looked over at me twice when I was heckling him. (You just can't argue ball and strikes.) Add to that my wife and son seeing me on TV and it was a pretty memorable baseball experience.
AN UPDATE ON CLINTON HATING -
I got my favorite right winger to admit it is "probable" that Vince Foster committed suicide, so maybe Clinton Hating is waning a bit. But luckily Hillary is out there, waiting in the wings.
THE CALIFORNIA ALSO RANS -
There will be about 135 people on the CA ballot for Governor, if you are lucky, you can names six: Schwarzenegger, Cruz, McClintock, Ueberroth, Huffington and the Green candidate, whose name even I don't remember. We all know that this race has tons of interesting plots and subplots, but there is one that could really create a political earthquake -- if one or more of the 129 other candidates break into this group of six.
It would require money, a really good message and campaign, and a melt down by the some, or all, of the top six. One candidate who might be able to do this is
Garrett Gruener, who has given about a million dollars to his campaign. Will it happen? Probably not, but if it did this would become even more fun to watch, and might be an incentive for people out there who aren't usually involved in politics to give it a second look.
CLINTON HATING AND BUSH HATING -
There seems to be an obsession amongst right-wingers to convince the country that Bush is better at everything than his Democratic predecessor. We have heard how only Junior could have led the country after 9/11, or how the current economy in the fault of Clinton policies and the only reason that we are not having a replay of the 1930’s is Bush's brave tax cut. I disagree with both of these sentiments, but you can make arguments, however flawed, for them.
However, the newest fad however is simply unsupportable; namely that Bush hating by the left somehow rivals the hatred and venom that was spewed toward Bill Clinton while he was in office by the right. The latest of these is a
column by Jonah Goldberg. (Goldberg's column, by the way, doesn't make any sense, mainly because it is so poorly written, but also because he takes the extremes of Bush “hating” and doesn't even get near the actual criticism of Bill Clinton, but this is probably all we can expect from such a hack writer.)
In case we have forgotten, it was practically Republican doctrine that Bill Clinton personally ordered (or actually perpetrated) the murder of dozens (or more) people. Even otherwise sensible Republicans bought into this philosophy, or at least did dismiss it as ridiculous. Try even today to get a true Clinton hater (or even a moderate one) to agree that Vince Foster committed suicide and was not murdered.
Do many Democrats hate Bush? Yes, of course, but it has more to do with his policies or with what the left feels was a stolen election. The hatred is just not on the personal and visceral level that many Republicans felt toward Clinton. It is more skin deep, not to the bone. Any attempt to argue otherwise is simply silly.
IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR FINGERPRINTS -
on the back of Bill Simon, look to see if Bush or Cheney show up at a fundraiser for him within the next year. Simon still has a substantial debt from the 2002 Governor’s race, and its possible (I would say likely) that a deal was cut whereas Simon would get out and the White House would help his get rid of that debt.
The more interesting question about the withdrawal, especially in light of recent polling that has Arnold behind Bustamante by 13%, is: will Simon's support go to Arnold or Tom McClintock. If McClintock can take over half of Simon's support, he will probably stay in the race for good; it is his only realistic chance at ever becoming Governor. And if he can lay claim to the hard core conservative vote, he will effectively keep Arnold from winning, and unless his support disappears, or if something very juicy is dangled before him by the White House, I don't see him getting out of the race.
The other interesting numbers in the LA Times poll reveal that recall support is down to 50%. I think the rage of the California voter is cooling, the novelty of recall is wearing off and reality is setting in. The recall vote is going to be very close, and the result may come down to how well Arnold runs his campaign. If he is unimpressive, I think voters will be less inclined to vote for the recall.
In the end, this whole election will be about Arnold.
WHILE I’M ON THE TOPIC OF INDIANS –
There was a post on
The Corner the other day by Rich Lowry, which was seeking opinions and facts on “what a rotten influence Indians are in our politics, pegged to California.” Jacob Levy has a good response to his post
here, but let me say this: I hate that the Indians have turned to gambling, since I really hate the boom in gambling, but what other options do they have? I wish that more tribes would use the piles of money they get from gambling to assist those tribes that are not as geographically fortunate, but it seems wrong to denigrate them for using the means at their disposal.
My guess is that if the Indians were giving to the Republicans, Mr. Lowry would not be asking about the horrible Indians, anymore than he asks about corporate donations. After all wouldn’t corporate money be more properly returned to shareholders, rather than showered upon politicians? (And don’t tell me that corporate PACs are funded by individuals, because those individuals are paid a salary which allows them to make these donations, which are frequently “optional” in name only.)
THIS IS BIZARRE -
I realize that the Indian Trust Fund has been mishandled by every administration in a way that is criminaland think that this is an underreported scandal. But I am not sure I understand this
particular punishment, which has apparently plunged the Department of the Interior back into the 80's.
SOUTH DAKOTA (AT-LARGE) -
From
this Washington Post article and this
one from the Aberdeen News (and from reading between the lines), it appears that Congressman Janklow will probably step down from his seat in Congress if the facts regarding his deadly accident don't significantly change.
FAVORITE AHHNOLD QUOTE TO DATE -
"I stand for fiscally responsible government, rebuilding California's economic engine, putting the needs of children first and reforming our political system so that the public interest comes before special interests."
I hear that he may also be coming out in favor of kittens and puppies. (As long as it doesn't negatively affect the bird and iguana voters.)
NEW ZOGBY NUMBERS -
People don't pay much attention to politics or policy in the summer, so I tend to discount summer polling numbers, but a new Zogby poll has Bush approval at 52%. I think that when people return to paying attention in the fall this number will drop even further. Regardless of the economic numbers, and they seem pretty mixed, people don't feel things are getting better, they don't see that all the tax cuts have stimulated the economy and they're worried about their jobs. If the real estate markets softens, and there are some signs it might be, people will move from concerned to panicked, and the White House won't be far behind.
FIRSTENERGY CORP. -
Here is a story with a
little more detail about FirstEnergy, as a follow up to my previous post on their political proclivities. It doesn't necessarily seem like Enron, but then again, Enron didn't seem like Enron until it all fell apart.
POLITICAL STORIES FOR THE FALL -
I know it is the dog days of summer and that, perhaps with the exception of the California recall, no one is really paying attention to politics, but a couple of interesting stories are formulating. Amazingly, two of the most interesting are occurring in Alabama, where the conservative, evangelical, Republican Governor is pushing for an overhaul of the antiquated state tax system and the elected Chief of the state Supreme Court is refusing to follow the order of a federal judge and remove a 2 ½ ton statute of the Ten Commandments that he had placed in the Supreme Court secretly one night.
Plus, two scandal ridden Governors (Wise in West Virginia and Martz in Montana) have announced that they will not seek reelection and we have nine Democratic running for the nomination. And of course, the Texas Democratic senators are still holed up in Albuquerque, so the Texas redistricting saga continues. These are just a preview of some stories that I am certain to be writing about this fall.
WHAT WILL $59,250 BUY IN WASHINGTON THESE DAYS? -
According to FEC records FirstEnergy Corp. executives, family members and PAC contributed in excess of $59,250 to the Bush 2000 campaign. Since FirstEnergy seems to have been the culprit of the blackout, the cost of which some experts have put in excess of $3 billion, the question is, will FirstEnergy be a target of the government's wrath, or will it escape focus and blame? Just wondering.
SURPRISING CALIFORNIA NEWS -
The
latest polls put Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante ahead of Der Ahhhrnold in the race to succeed Gray Davis. The surprising part is not that the numbers are close, but that they are close so soon. Democrats appear to be consolidating their support behind Bustamante mush sooner than anyone predicted.
Two quick predictions on the fallout of this poll: 1) Arnold will go substantive on policy this week, and may even accept some debates; and 2) pressure will build for one of the other Republicans (Ueberroth, Simon or McClintock) to drop out and support Arnold, and that this pressure will come from a certain office on 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
The problem with Arnold stopping a celebrity campaign and starting to talk about policy is that he is bound to lose some voters who support him now. He must believe that whatever support he losses because of his positions, will be made up with other voters who agree with his policies, otherwise his rationale for running is seriously flawed. But he is a moderate to liberal Republican in a multicandidate race, in a state that is firmly Democratic, but with a sizable minority of conservative voters. His moderate positions are going to lose him conservative support, since they have 2 other candidates to chose from in Simon and McClintock, plus he has another moderate Republican in Peter Ueberroth who is also taking away from his voters. Arnold has to start pulling from Democratic voters, indeed, he may need to take as much as 25% of the Democratic vote if he is to win.
Which is why I make prediction #2. I believe that the White House would desperately like to see Arnold win, if for no other reason than because it causes chaos for the Democrats in a state they should firmly control. What I don't know is what real influence they have on the other Republican candidates, who all must know that this is their only real shot at becoming Governor of California.
I'M BACK -
Having survived blackouts (for 25 hours), floods (in my basement) and a solo 1300 mile car trip (with a hoarse voice that wouldn't allow me to sing to myself), I'm now back for your blogging pleasure.
A Little Break -
Off to vacation for a few days. So no posts until Monday -- please try to contain your sorrow.
Only 15 So Far -
An
great article from the LA Times on who is running and what is required to get the ballot. Ah California!
I like my popcorn with butter, thanks.
No Go for DiFI -
Diane Feinstein has announced she will not run in the recall. This just makes it even more likely that chaos will ensue on the Democratic side.
Sit back and pass the popcorn please.
Love/Hate -
I hate the idea of recall elections, they go against the republican (small r) traditions that make this country governable. But it is hard not to love the California recall election for the sheer zaniness that surrounds it.
For a mere $3,500 and 65 signatures any resident can run for governor, except the current governor. Possible candidates include Arrrrnold, Hustler publisher Larry Flynt, some Green party candidate, Ariana Huffington, her ex-husband/Congressman who recently came out of the closet, Gary Coleman (“what you talkin’ about voters”), the guy who lost to Gray Davis in the last election
just last November, plus the guy who lost to
him. (Not to mention the other no-names who will run just for kicks, maybe in the hundreds.) And remember this is a “highest number of votes wins” election, there is no run-off. 33% of the vote will probably be enough to be elected, and if it gets crazy enough, that number could be as low as 20%.
Democrats are fretting over whether to stick with the most unpopular guy in the entire state (seriously, his favorability ratings are around 25%) or to run another candidate just in case recall wins. Which of course would put them in the position of asking voters to vote against the recall, but if you do, then vote for the other Democrat (probably Diane Feinstein, maybe Barbara Boxer) to replace him. It would be a very difficult position to be in, but otherwise they either have to dump Davis or risk having a Republican (or a non-establishment Democrat) win the election. Of course, some prominent Democrat may jump in before a decision on what to do is made (by whom? good question) and just add to the chaos.
Republicans worry about this election because of the sheer chaos. There will probably be at least three establishment Republicans running, which will detract from each others votes. Plus if a Republican wins, and things continue to go bad, it might absolutely bury the GOP in California for years to come.
The White House worries for this reason and because if the GOP candidates appear too conservative, or especially anti-Hispanic, it could carry over into other states, effecting Junior’s chances in 2004. Plus, and this may be more bravado and bluster than fact, there are some who believe that Bush may have a shot in California, and the best way for this to happen is to have Gray Davis stay in office and have voters blame him, instead of the President, if things haven’t turned around.
Given the unprecedented nature of the election, uncertainty over how it should be conducted and the number of lawsuits already in the works (at least 5), it should make for an interesting August, which is always the most boring political month. So sit back and enjoy, it should be fun to watch, (unless you actually live in California, in which case cringing may be the more appropriate reaction.)
The best site to get the latest news and rumors on the recall is the
SacBee’s political blog.
