The two issues that affect the country right now, and which are receiving the most media attention, are Iraq and the economy. Frankly, I think the President doesn't really care that much about the economy. Mainly that is because there is little that he can do that will have a real effect, or that would help him politically. If he raises taxes he gets killed by his base, if he cuts taxes the blossoming deficit is going to hurt him with middle class suburban voters. The rest of the domestic stuff is fluff (hydrogen cars?) and it was apparent that he doesn't give it too much thought.
The truly amazing thing is that I could have written that exact paragraph in 1991 (except for the hydrogen cars line). For all the WH's worries about not being Bush I, it is looking more and more like Junior is reliving his Dad's term.
You can argue that the economy isn't his fault and that may very well be the case, but he just can't sell more tax cuts to the public anymore, they aren't buying, and increasingly neither are the Republicans on the Hill. They know that now that they are
completely in charge, if the country is still moving in the wrong direction come 04, they will take the blame. All of a sudden it’s their hide on the line.
Of course we are going to invade Iraq, it’s been almost unavoidable for some time now. I am truly ambivalent about this prospect, but if I saw some of this "overwhelming" evidence the administration claims to have, I could jump on board. But they haven't made the case yet, the SOTU was a good opening argument, but, as you know, evidence is what wins the case.
(As an aside, the fact that he gave a list of all the al-Queda operatives that we have captured was simply ridiculous. During his recitation, every American had the same though going through their head, "but what about bin Laden?" Why he mentioned this at all is a mystery to me.)
Junior may actually be vulnerable in '04, and if we invade Iraq in March and are done by June, he will be even more so, because people (and the media) will then focus on their own pocketbooks. The problem is that who will be the Dem that steps up? I’ll have more thoughts on that later.
My first thoughts after the SOTU are pretty simple -- on domestic policy, I don't think that he made a convincing case for tax cuts today, especially afterhe talked about environmental reforms 15 years from now. But as for foreign policy, he seems to have thrown done a real gauntlet . . . democracy (with AIDS relief thrown in) for the entire world, starting with Iraq. I still need some more convincing that Saddam needs to go right now, but it was a start. (Actually this is sounding more and more like it sounds a lot like Bush I. Junior’s worst nightmare must have been a world that revolves around strong Iraq policy versus weak U.S. economy . . . because we know how that game plays out.)
Good foriegn policy stuff by Junior.
The website
Talking Points Memo: by Joshua Micah Marshall has continually had the best insight into the North Korea question that has proven to be so bedeviling.
